Risk Assessment

1

RISK ASSESSMENT

RiskAssessment

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Risk Assessment Category 3 Hurricane

RiskAssessment

Category3 hurricanecould havea negativeimpacton Embry-Riddle campus.Forexample,thecampuscould experiencethe extremedestructionof its buildingsandaircraft in additionto fatalinjuriesandothereventualities. Furthermore,severalacademics, flightprograms,facilitiesforthedistance-learningstudentsmay be disrupted.Category3 hurricanes will result these.

Hurricanespecificationson thepaperhereof,are in linewith Saffir-Simpsonscaleunder level III system.Nevertheless,theguidehereofis a perfectanalysisinthe identificationof thecriticalassets of theUniversity togetherwith its susceptibility.Thus,itis applicabletoaccidentsandrisksa companied with category 3 hurricanes. Forexample,itwill helpin theevaluation of sensitivityof realassets like dormitories,library,etc.thusbeingableto makeimprovementinsafetyandoperational plansto guardagainst thenearfuturehurricanes.

Thepaperofferswaysto identifythevulnerabilities andtheeffectsof hurricanes,their behaviors,andpatterns.In addition,thepapergivesspecificcounter-measures. Furthermore,itis researchedandwrittenin a waythatitis easyto update,refine,andexpandin thereflectionof theincreasedlevel of experience.

Furthermore,thepaperhighlights generalwaysthat are in applicationto a varietyof thetypesof assets. Moreover,anyinstitutioncan applythevulnerability evaluation techniquesin thispaper:despite thefactthat,itisspecifiedforUniversities andits particularassets.

Theparticularapproacheshighlighted in thepaperhereof,havethefollowingadvantagesthat can beapplied.Theyinclude:theprovisionof a welldescribeddata on eachpotentialuniversityasset, in theeventuality of a category3 hurricane.Theaiding officialshaveto setprioritiesproportionately to thedegreeof riskexhibitingtheUniversity, in addition,technicalresearchneedsin managementof emergencyandtheprotectionof assets haveto be encouraged.Lastly,thepublichas to be providedwith knowledge,tools,andequipments to influencetheadoptionof measuresto mitigatetheeventuality.

Finally,thepaperhas determinedandputassets into fourcategories.TheyincludeTools andequipments, infrastructure,personnel,andfacilities.Furthermore,in theconsiderationof criticalassets there are 3factors.Theseare theconstructionandasset access,thehazardsof thesitesandimportanceandattendance.

Inthedeterminationof criticalassets, itwasdonein regardsto thevitalfunctionsandoperationscontinuityto theuniversity.Thus,theassociated hazardswereassessedin accordance to their vulnerability. Therefore,theassociatedeffectsare measuredto whathappenin theabsenceof thehighestlevel of protection.Furthermore,theimmediatecounter-measures that leadto theavoidanceof theseeffectswill alsobe in discussionin additiontothe costin caseof their implementation.

Briefly,there wasa re-assessment of thesecurityoperational planningof theUniversity. Itwasto determineifitwascompletedandthusprovidea fastin depthresponseandrescueforthedangerof category3hurricanes.

Embry-RiddleMission

&quotOurmission is to teach the science, practice and business of aviationand aerospace, preparing students for productive careers andleadership roles in service around the world. Our technologicallyenriched, student-centered environment emphasizes learning throughcollaboration and teamwork, concern for ethical and responsiblebehavior, cultivation of analytical and management abilities, and afocus on the development of the professional skills needed forparticipation in a global community. We believe a vibrant future foraviation and aerospace rests in the success of our students. Towardthis end, Embry-Riddle is committed to providing a climate thatfacilitates the highest standards of academic achievement andknowledge discovery, in an interpersonal environment that supportsthe unique needs of each individual. Embry-Riddle AeronauticalUniversity is the world`s leader in aviation and aerospace education.The University is an independent, non-profit, culturally diverseinstitutioneducation and research in aviation, aerospace,engineering and related fields leading to associate’s,baccalaureate’s, master’s and doctoral degrees.&quot (ERAU,2012)

Step#1: Critical Asset Identification

CriticalAssets

Embry-RiddleAeronautical University Campus has manyassets above 50 which someare morebeneficialto theuniversitymission.In addition,a sampledof theassets is alsovitalin theoverall functionality of theUniversity andtheattainmentof its purpose.Therefore,theyincludedormitories,studentcentersimulators,andfacultystructures.

Forexample,category3hurricanelandinginthe areais likelyto causeasignificantdamageto theuniversityinfrastructuresincludingcausingfatalinjuriesto thestudentsandthestaff.Therefore,theoccurrenceof suchhurricanecan bringeveryactivityanddailyoperationsof theuniversityto a standstillthushinderingtheoverall achievementof theUniversity mission.

Therefore,forus to identifythecriticalassets of theUniversity, wehaveto viewassets in 4 groups:facilities,equipments, infrastructures,andpersonnel.Thus,followinga thoroughconsideration,wecameup with significantsampledassets to theuniversity,forthemaintenanceof standardoperational procedures.

Infrastructure

(Look at 16 CI Sectors)

Facilities

Equipment

Personnel

Energy &amp Power

Classrooms

Planes

Staff

Communications

COA

Cars

Faculty

Waste Water Systems

COAS

Emergency vehicles

Students

Information Technology

COB

Computers

Security

Labs

Books

Visitors

Simulator building

Flight simulators

Lehman Building

Servers

Dorms

ROTC Supplies

ROTC Building

Furniture

ICI

Sports Stadiums

Student Center

Welcome center

Table1

CriticalUniversity Assets

Inthedeterminationof thevulnerability level of eachparticularasset, I provideda numericalratingto eachof theasset factorswith fiveas thehighestcriticaland1 beingtheminimalessential.ThecentralUniversity missionwastheobjectfactorin decidingthefactorsputinplace inconsiderationof themostcritical.

Table2: critical Asset factors and values (disaster)

CRITICAL ASSET FACTOR

VALUE

DESCRIPTION

Survivability factor

A) Shelter

5

Is the asset suitable for shelter during catastrophic events (hurricanes, etc.)?

B) Vulnerability to damage

5

Is the asset relatively vulnerable to a catastrophic event (due to location, prominence, etc.)?

Loss and Damage Consequences

C) Casualty Risk

5

Is there a possibility of serious injury or loss of life resulting from a catastrophic event (hurricane, etc.)?

D) Environmental Impact

3

Will damage to the asset have an ecological impact of altering the environment?

E) Replacement Cost

5

Will significant replacement cost be incurred if the asset is damaged?

F) Replacement/Down Time

4

Will damage to the asset cause significant replacement/down time?

Consequences to University Services

G) Emergency Response Function

3

Does the asset serve an emergency response function and will the action or activity of emergency response be affected?

H) Mission Continuity

4

Is the asset necessary to maintain mission continuity?

Consequences to the Student body and University Staff

I) Available Alternates

3

Is this the only asset that can perform its primary function?

J) Communication Capability

2

Is communication dependent upon the asset?

K) Economic Impact

4

Will damage to the asset have an effect on the resources and earnings ability of the university?

Operational importance

5

Is there an overall value of the asset performing or staying operational?

Symbolic importance

1

Does the asset have symbolic importance?

Followingthe determination of the values of each of the table 2 asset factors,I used the very same values by applying them to table 1 above.

L) Functional Importance

M) Symbolic Importance

C

Table 3: Critical Asset Prioritization Table

RITICAL ASSET FACTOR

TOTAL

SCORE

(X49)

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

5

5

5

3

5

4

3

4

3

2

4

5

1

Classrooms

3

3

1

0

3

4

0

3

1

0

4

3

0

25

COA

4

3

1

0

5

3

0

1

2

0

3

4

0

26

COAS

3

3

2

0

5

3

0

1

2

0

3

4

1

27

COB

3

3

1

0

5

3

0

1

1

0

3

3

0

23

Labs

2

3

3

1

3

2

0

1

2

0

4

3

0

24

Simulator building

3

4

1

0

5

3

0

1

1

0

3

4

0

25

Lehman Building

5

2

1

0

5

3

0

1

2

0

3

4

0

26

Dorms

2

4

4

0

4

4

0

2

3

0

4

5

0

32

ROTC Building

4

3

2

0

4

2

0

1

1

0

2

2

0

21

ICI

4

2

1

0

4

2

0

1

2

0

3

3

0

22

Sports Stadiums

0

5

4

1

5

2

0

0

2

0

4

3

1

27

Student Center

2

3

2

0

5

4

0

2

3

0

4

5

1

31

Planes

0

5

4

3

5

4

0

1

3

0

4

5

1

35

Vehicles

1

4

3

1

3

2

1

1

2

0

2

2

0

22

Emergency Vehicles

2

4

2

2

5

4

3

0

3

0

1

2

0

28

Computers

0

4

1

0

4

2

0

2

3

1

4

5

0

26

Books

0

4

1

0

3

1

0

2

2

0

3

4

0

20

Flight Simulators

0

4

3

0

5

3

0

1

3

0

4

4

0

27

Servers

0

4

0

0

3

4

0

4

3

2

4

5

0

29

ROTC Supplies

0

2

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

0

1

0

0

6

Furniture

1

3

1

0

2

2

0

0

1

0

3

1

0

14

Staff

0

2

3

0

3

4

2

4

3

2

4

5

1

33

Faculty

0

2

3

0

3

4

2

4

3

2

4

5

1

33

Students

0

3

3

0

3

4

1

4

3

2

4

5

1

33

Security

0

3

3

0

3

4

3

3

3

2

4

4

0

32

Visitors

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

2

0

11

Welcome Center

3

3

3

1

5

1

0

2

1

0

2

3

1

25

Energy &amp Power

0

5

0

1

4

4

0

4

3

1

4

5

0

31

Communications

0

4

0

0

3

4

3

3

3

2

3

5

0

30

Waste Water Systems

0

4

0

3

3

4

0

3

3

1

4

5

0

30

Information Technology

0

3

0

0

3

4

0

4

3

2

4

5

0

28

Theobject of table 3 is to indicate the ranking together withcriticality cutting across all the chosen assets that are critical.Therefore, the chart indicates the specific chosen asset as far asthe overall functionality of the university is concerned.

Step#2: Vulnerability Assessment

VulnerabilityAssessment

Theprimaryobjectiveof carryingout thesusceptibilityevaluation is to identify,torankandcalculatingthesusceptibilityI haveI detectedin thesystem.Theevaluation is broadin scopeandassessesthecriticalassets that wereidentifiedin step#oneabove.Therefore,by thevulnerability assessmentI wasableto obtaintheenormousnatureof lossestheuniversityis likelyto facein theoccurrenceof thedisaster.Theadvantageousaspectof thevulnerability evaluation is to findout a quantified idealsystemthat providesdata on susceptibilityandtheeventuallossestheUniversitymay incur.

Therefore,whenitcomesto susceptibility,there are threeissuesto putin considerationon regardsto criticalassets. Thus,theseissuesincludeattendanceandimportance,theconstructionof assets andaccess,andlastlythesite-specifichazards.

Table4 – Vulnerability Factor Definitions

VULNERABILITY

FACTOR

DEFINITION

Importance and Attendance

Awareness of the importance of the asset and the number of people typically present.

Asset Construction and Access

The level of construction (occupancy type, year built, construction type, number of stories) and the access paths to and from the asset.

Site Specific Hazards

The presence of materials that have biological, nuclear, incendiary, chemical or explosive properties in quantities that would expend initial response capabilities if compromised.

Intable 4, the susceptibility factors have been broken down in to twodifferent sub-factors as indicated in table 5 below.

Table5 – Vulnerability Factor Sub-Elements

VULNERABILITY

FACTOR

FIRST

SUB-ELEMENT

SECOND

SUB-ELEMENT

Importance and Attendance

Level of Importance

(A)

Attendance/Users

(B)

Asset Construction and Access

Asset Construction

(C)

Access

(D)

Site Specific

Hazards

Receptor Impacts

(E)

Volume

(F)

Therefore,the first sub- factor in table 5 deals with the level importance, theconstruction of assets, and the impacts of the receptor. The secondsub-factor involves with volume, attendance and users, and finallyaccess.

Table6: Vulnerability factor Default Value and definitions

IMPORTANCE &amp ATTENDANCE

LEVEL OF IMPORTANCE

(A)

1

Low importance &amp visibility in community

2

Moderate importance &amp visibility in community

3

Necessary to mission &amp highly visible in community

4

Critical to mission and highly visible in community

ATTENDANCE AND USERS

(B)

1

Less than 10

2

10 to 100

3

100 to 500

4

500 or greater

CONSTRUCTION &amp ACCESS

ASSET CONSTRUCTION

(C)

1

Recently built, one story

2

Built within 5 years, 1-2 stories

3

Built within 5-10 years 2-story

4

Built&gt10 years 2-story

ACCESS

(D)

1

Multi-lane roadways in and out primary access

2

Primary access roadways leading in or out

3

Secondary access through one or more one-lane roadways

4

Secondary, one-lane access and egress only

SITE-SPECIFIC HAZARDS

RECEPTOR IMPACTS

(E)

1

No environmental or human receptor effects

2

Acute or chronic toxic effects to environmental receptor(s)

3

Acute or chronic effects to human receptor(s)

4

Acute and chronic effects to environmental and human receptor(s)

VOLUME

(F)

1

No materials present

2

Small quantities of a single material present

3

Large quantities of a single material present

4

Large quantities of multiple materials present

Therefore,following the establishment of a value for specific critical assetsabove, I then used the same values to complete table 7 below in theequation of vulnerability.

VulnerabilityEquation: (Y) = (A x B) + (C x D) + (E x F)

Therefore,the Vulnerability Factor (Y) is divided by the total scores of themultiplied sub-sectors, and is then multiplied by one hundred toacquire the (Y) coordinate. Thus, I then used the total score fromTable 3, which ends up being (X). By treating (X) just like (Y) anddividing it by the highest total score and multiplying it by onehundred, thus I acquired the (X) coordinate as well.

Table7 – Scoring T

Table 7 – Scoring Table for Assessing Vulnerabilities

V= v/48 * 100

(A *B) + (C * D)+ (E *F)

1-4

*

1-4

+

1-4

*

1-4

+

1-4

*

1-4

Classrooms

3

4

4

1

1

1

17

35.42

COA

3

4

4

1

1

1

17

35.42

COAS

3

4

1

1

4

4

29

60.42

COB

2

4

4

1

1

1

13

27.08

Labs

4

3

3

1

4

4

31

64.58

Simulator building

3

3

4

1

1

1

14

29.17

Lehman Building

3

4

4

1

4

4

32

66.67

Dorms

4

4

4

1

2

2

24

50

ROTC Building

2

3

3

1

1

1

10

20.83

ICI

2

2

4

1

1

1

9

18.75

Sports Stadiums

1

3

3

1

1

1

7

14.58

Student Center

4

4

4

4

1

1

33

68.75

Planes

3

4

1

1

4

4

29

60.42

Vehicles

1

3

1

1

4

4

20

41.67

Emergency Vehicles

3

1

1

1

4

4

20

41.67

Computers

2

4

1

1

1

1

10

20.83

Books

1

3

1

1

1

1

5

10.42

Flight Simulators

3

3

1

1

1

1

11

22.92

Servers

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

ROTC Supplies

1

3

1

1

1

1

5

10.42

Furniture

1

4

1

1

1

1

6

12.50

Staff

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

Faculty

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

Students

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

Security

3

2

1

1

1

1

8

16.67

Visitors

1

2

1

1

1

1

4

8.33

Welcome Center

1

2

1

1

1

1

4

8.33

Energy &amp Power

4

4

1

1

4

4

33

68.75

Communications

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

Waste Water Systems

4

4

1

1

4

4

33

68.75

Information Technology

4

4

1

1

1

1

18

37.50

Step#3: effect Evaluation

Underthisstep,I evaluatetheeffects.Theprimaryobjectis to determinewhich assets are in greatdangerofdireconsequence,in caseof their attackbythe hurricane,under a setof specificsetof prevailingconditionsandcircumstances.In other words, in the process of creating the risk analysis, wedeveloped a consequence evaluation, which would ascertain theseverity of the consequences. Therefore,Table8 below highlights four differentsectionsin regardsto susceptibilityandcriticality. I usedthechartin definingtheissueof whetherassets wereloworhighin their sensitivityorcriticality. Thus,ithelpedme to I identifythespecificassetsI could providecountermeasures formitigatingits level of vulnerability.

Quadrantonewill be thehighestquadrant in significance.Not all the assets under the categorization of this quadrant areviewedas thehighlycritical,as themostvulnerableto damage.Therefore,theseare theassets thefirstin priorityof countermeasure becausetheyare mostlikelyto sufferheavilyin termsof destructionin theeventof a categorythreehurricane.

Table8: Criticality and Vulnerability Matrix

Vulnerability

Quadrant IV

Low criticality and high vulnerability

Quadrant I

High criticality and high vulnerability

Quadrant III

Low criticality and low vulnerability

Quadrant II

High criticality and low vulnerability

Criticality

Step#4: Countermeasures

Thepurpose of this step is to apply effective specific counter measuresto high priority, assets that are critical. To achieve this, asecurity operation that is functional has to be built.

Inaddition, therefore, the team managers have to secure theirdesignated operation area following the checklist named below.

  1. in a protected location all the items of high vale have to be secured

  2. all computers and susceptible paper work have to be covered with plastic sheet

  3. all windows have to be closed and items in balconies have to be removed

  4. The electronic equipments have to be unplugged

  5. Be vigilant of fire hazards and ensure to work with fire departments

Security

Securityis goingfollowthesameprotocolthat theyhavein theDisaster andEmergency Management Plan. Thefirstshiftstartsat 0700-1900.Andthepersonnelconsists have theSafety Director, LSS Officer, Communication Center CoordinatorDispatcher/LSS Tech, A-shift (3 officers)B-shift (3 officers)shiftsupervisorand2 PTSO officers.Thesecondshiftstarts1900-0700 with an Operations Supervisor, C ShiftSupervisor, PTSO Supervisor, three Housing Officers, four shiftofficers,andtwo dispatchers.

Theinstallation of window protection for large panes of glass andinsuring the glass will not break into shards but into small piecesto prevent damage is critical for the protection of the building’sinteriors regarding electronics and important equipment, for example,the Lehman Building. Glass can also be a hazard when traveling at thespeed of the hurricane winds, making this countermeasure an importantmitigation.

Puttingin place water pumps and backup generators is crucial for thecontinuity of operations during the recovery phase. Power outages canlast for weeks, depending on the response of Florida Power and Light(FPL). Power is needed for the university to continue its operationsas well as water pumps. The scarcity of water can create hygienerelated problems, especially in dorms. Water pumps can also save thehassle and money spent on installing portable restrooms outside ofbuildings.

Theinstitution has the responsibility of protecting and providing forstudents, faculty, staff, and visitors in the event of a majorinterruption of our mission or operation. These obligations extend toa responsibility for each Department to be able to meet itsindividual obligations. This includes the ability to provide theservices expected of them and to carry out functions critical to themission of the University should an event occur that interrupts thenormal course of operations. Failure to have an adequate continuityplan could lead to financial disaster, interruptions of academicclasses, failure of research projects, and delays in completing othermission critical activities. We recommend that the universityestablish such a plan to speed up the recovery process and tocontinue business as normal.

Additionally,notwithstanding the relocation of aircraft is already part of theuniversity’s original emergency plan, it is important to highlightthat it is an important countermeasure. It is important to make surean effective plan is in place that there will be pilots to fly theaircraft and that the aircraft will leave before any damage can occurfrom the hurricane.

TheUniversity safety officers stay in the institution during hurricanesand it is important to make sure they have proper shelter for eachhurricane and that it remains up to standards for hurricane shelter.Campus safety officers will continue to use Doolittle for shelter asthey have in previous years. Food and water left over in the StudentCenter will be used for the officers while they remain on campus. Anystudents that cannot find shelter for the hurricane will be sent tothe Halifax Hospital shelter unit until it is safe to return back tocampus.

Inthe event of a category 3 hurricane, communication for emergencies isneeded and can be set up before a hurricane strike. Communication isneeded to keep the continuity of operations running smoothly socampus safety and administrators can communicate effectively. For acategory three hurricane, the countermeasure to keep thecommunication running is to use radios. A category 3 hurricane willnot cause long term damage to cell phone and radio towers. After afew days, cell phones and landlines will work again and radios willno longer be needed.

TABLE10. Application of Countermeasures to Critical Assets

Critical Assets

Countermeasures

Hurricane Proof Windows

Weather Radar

System Alarm / early notification

Evacuation plan

Sand Bags

Rubber Stoppers

Training

Hurricane resistant doors

Maintenance and operation

Cooperation plan/agreement

Planes

X

X

X

Energy &amp Power

X

x

X

X

X

Waste Water Systems

X

X

X

x

COAS

X

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Lehman Building

x

x

x

x

x

x

Labs

x

x

x

x

x

x

X

x

Dorms

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

Emergency Vehicles

x

x

X

Vehicles

x

x

x

Table#11: Countermeasure Relative Cost Range

Capital Investment

Annual Operating Cost

Annual Maintenance Cost

Low

Less than $50k

Less than $20K

Less than $10K

Medium

$50K to $100K

$20K to $50K

$10K to $20K

High

More than $100K

More than$50K

More than$20K

Conclusion

Briefly,thehappeningof a categorythreehurricaneon campuswill causea significantmassivedamageto theuniversityinclusiveto thestaffandstudents.Therefore,to curbanyhappeningof eventuality theprovidedcountermeasureshaveto be in place.Moreover,theyare of lowcostas faras theadvantagestheyofferare concerned. My recommendations,therefore,will alleviatetheimpactsof hurricanesandtherecoveryfrom thesame.